Reality begins to rain down on Putin’s Victory Parade
It commemorates the defeat of Nazism, in which the Soviet Union played a major role. The day continues to be of great significance to the Russian people. It’s unlikely that many families have grandparents or parents who survived the horrors of the war, which is still called the “Great Patriotic War.”
Victory Day this year was said to have a special meaning due to the conflict in Ukraine. Kremlin watchers predicted either that Putin would declare his “special operation” a success or, more ominously, he might call for a massive mobilization of the Russian military so they could intensify their assault on Ukraine. In the end, neither of these things happened. In the end, neither was forthcoming.
Stefan Wolff is an expert on international security from Birmingham University who specializes in the post-Soviet area. He believes that Ukraine’s strong defense has forced Russia to assume a more defensive mode and that it’s more likely that we will see a long-lasting war of attrition. He believes that increased Western military assistance and economic sanctions are going to continue to have a negative impact on the situation. A return to negotiations is possible, but Ukraine and its charismatic leader Volodymyr Zelensky will be in a stronger position.
Read more: Ukraine: Victory Day celebrations can’t mask how badly things are going for Vladimir Putin
Victory Day is also traditionally a chance for Russia to display its military might: thousands of troops marching in formation with the latest in tanks, warplanes, and other high-tech hardware. But – having watched the parade – military specialist Frank Ledgwidge writes ) that it was a strangely lackluster affair, with no air display (due, it was said, to the weather – on a clear day) and an array of next-generation material over which there remain significant question marks.
Read more: Ukraine war: Russia’s new military hardware looked good on parade, but are less impressive in the field.
Here is our summary of expert analysis on the Ukraine conflict.
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International response
While Ukraine continues to receive large amounts of Western military assistance, including from the US, the US recently passed a “lend lease” act that will make it much easier to deliver weapons where they are required. Christoph Bluth is an expert on international relations and military histories at Bradford University. He sees similarities with the aid package given by the US during World War II to Britain when Britain was in its “darkest hours”.
Read more: America’s massive ‘lend-lease’ aid plan for Ukraine recalls similar help in Britain’s ‘darkest hour’
The conflict in Ukraine has ushered in a new era of increased Western defense budgets all around. Or, as defense secretary Liz Truss would have it: “Geopolitics is back.” And western governments realise that decades of under-investment in defense have left their countries vulnerable. Defense expert Kenton White, from the University of Reading, writes that when even countries like Sweden and Finland pump billions into their defense budgets, it’s a sign that the post-cold war “peace dividend” is well and truly spent ).
Read more: Ukraine: boosting European defense spending now won’t Make up for Decades of Underinvestment.
Finland and Sweden, moreover, are edging ever closer to joining NATO. The two countries have traditionally maintained a neutral stance, albeit putting in place arrangements to guarantee their security. But, as we know, Ukraine had a similar deal in the shape of the Budapest memorandum, which didn’t deter Russia from attacking – and this will have been noted elsewhere. Stefan Wolff sees a new European order ) emerging from the Ukraine war – but it’s not the security landscape that Putin had envisaged when he sent the troops across in Ukraine.
Read more: Finland and Sweden’s desire to join Nato shows Putin has permanently redrawn the map of Europe.
Crime and punishment
Recent reports indicate that Ukraine has indicted at least one Russian military officer for war crimes and is preparing to charge several other criminals, such as rape and murder of civilians. Zelensky said last month that Ukraine had put legislation in place to allow Ukrainian courts to prosecute enemy combatants on charges of war crimes. These will be the very first cases. Solon Solomon is an expert on international law at Brunel University in London. He believes that it would be difficult to bring the real architects of the war, those who were directing the operations from the Kremlin’s headquarters, before a court.
